{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/dbarker/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-david.c.barker1969@gmail.com/My Drive/Research/Turnout Experiment/POQ Overestimating TO Final 3 21 2024 .smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}opened on:  {res}21 Mar 2024, 10:29:35

{com}. do "/Users/dbarker/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-david.c.barker1969@gmail.com/My Drive/Research/Turnout Experiment/POQ Reducing Racial Asymmetries in Overestimating.do"
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. use "/Users/dbarker/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-david.c.barker1969@gmail.com/My Drive/Research/Turnout Experiment/yougov 2020 simple for POQ replication 3 18 24.dta"
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Replication code: POQ "Reducing Racial Asymmetries in the Overestimating of Voter Turnout"
. 
. * First: renaming and recoding the treatment vs. control variable 
. 
. gen treatment=split_AB
{txt}
{com}. tab treatment

  {txt}treatment {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          1 {c |}{res}        672       49.12       49.12
{txt}          2 {c |}{res}        696       50.88      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,368      100.00
{txt}
{com}. replace treatment=treatment-1
{txt}(1,368 real changes made)

{com}. label variable treatment "0=control (asked separately) ; 1=treatment (asked together)"
{txt}
{com}. 
. tab treatment [aw=weight]

  {txt}0=control {c |}
     (asked {c |}
separately) {c |}
          ; {c |}
1=treatment {c |}
     (asked {c |}
  together) {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}   664.3806       48.57       48.57
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}   703.6194       51.43      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,368      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Next: Creating the simplified race variable that includes and distinguishes only Black respondents from White respondents
. 
. tab race [aweight=weight]

             {txt}Race {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
            White {c |}{res} 863.541161       63.12       63.12
{txt}            Black {c |}{res}164.8710428       12.05       75.18
{txt}         Hispanic {c |}{res} 221.373206       16.18       91.36
{txt}            Asian {c |}{res} 35.9485354        2.63       93.99
{txt}  Native American {c |}{res} 10.8229552        0.79       94.78
{txt}Two or more races {c |}{res} 32.2444422        2.36       97.13
{txt}            Other {c |}{res} 33.0033705        2.41       99.55
{txt}   Middle Eastern {c |}{res} 6.19528678        0.45      100.00
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
            Total {c |}{res}      1,368      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. gen blackwhite = 1 if race==2
{txt}(896 missing values generated)

{com}. replace blackwhite = 0 if race==1
{txt}(659 real changes made)

{com}. label variable blackwhite "white=0; black=1; other=."
{txt}
{com}. tab blackwhite [aw=weight]

   {txt}white=0; {c |}
   black=1; {c |}
    other=. {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 949.682481       83.97       83.97
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 181.317519       16.03      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,131      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. tab treatment if blackwhite !=. [aweight=weight]

  {txt}0=control {c |}
     (asked {c |}
separately) {c |}
          ; {c |}
1=treatment {c |}
     (asked {c |}
  together) {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 546.589787       48.33       48.33
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 584.410213       51.67      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,131      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab treatment if blackwhite==0 [aweight=0]
{txt}no observations

{com}. tab treatment if blackwhite==1 [aweight=weight]

  {txt}0=control {c |}
     (asked {c |}
separately) {c |}
          ; {c |}
1=treatment {c |}
     (asked {c |}
  together) {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 233.725051       49.52       49.52
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 238.274949       50.48      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        472      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Next: creating the outcome variable
. 
. * Step one: creating the validated turnout variable that we use, which we do by taking the validated variable we received from targetsmart and augmented it such that nonregistered respondents are counted as nonvoters
. 
. gen turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter =  turnoutvalidatedfromtsmart 
{txt}(655 missing values generated)

{com}. replace turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter = 0 if votereg>=2
{txt}(166 real changes made)

{com}. replace turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter=. if turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter==.
{txt}(0 real changes made)

{com}. tab turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter [aw=weight]

{txt}turnoutvali {c |}
dnonregtono {c |}
     nvoter {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 231.823132       26.74       26.74
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 635.176868       73.26      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        867      100.00
{txt}
{com}. bysort treatment: tab turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter [aw=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 0

turnoutvali {c |}
dnonregtono {c |}
     nvoter {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 115.574621       26.63       26.63
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 318.425379       73.37      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        434      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 1

turnoutvali {c |}
dnonregtono {c |}
     nvoter {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}  116.23569       26.84       26.84
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}  316.76431       73.16      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        433      100.00

{txt}
{com}. bysort blackwhite: tab turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter [aw=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> blackwhite = 0

turnoutvali {c |}
dnonregtono {c |}
     nvoter {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 91.3033623       20.94       20.94
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 344.696638       79.06      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        436      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> blackwhite = 1

turnoutvali {c |}
dnonregtono {c |}
     nvoter {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 110.055568       39.31       39.31
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 169.944432       60.69      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        280      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> blackwhite = .

turnoutvali {c |}
dnonregtono {c |}
     nvoter {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 55.1873467       36.55       36.55
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 95.8126533       63.45      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        151      100.00

{txt}
{com}. 
. tab race if turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter!=.

             {txt}Race {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
            White {c |}{res}        436       50.29       50.29
{txt}            Black {c |}{res}        280       32.30       82.58
{txt}         Hispanic {c |}{res}         90       10.38       92.96
{txt}            Asian {c |}{res}         12        1.38       94.35
{txt}  Native American {c |}{res}          8        0.92       95.27
{txt}Two or more races {c |}{res}         24        2.77       98.04
{txt}            Other {c |}{res}         16        1.85       99.88
{txt}   Middle Eastern {c |}{res}          1        0.12      100.00
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
            Total {c |}{res}        867      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab race if turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter!=. [aw=weight]

             {txt}Race {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
            White {c |}{res} 561.346265       64.75       64.75
{txt}            Black {c |}{res} 92.8609199       10.71       75.46
{txt}         Hispanic {c |}{res}149.1842317       17.21       92.66
{txt}            Asian {c |}{res} 14.3332766        1.65       94.32
{txt}  Native American {c |}{res} 9.01875643        1.04       95.36
{txt}Two or more races {c |}{res} 22.2763188        2.57       97.93
{txt}            Other {c |}{res} 15.5125937        1.79       99.72
{txt}   Middle Eastern {c |}{res}   2.467638        0.28      100.00
{txt}{hline 18}{c +}{hline 35}
            Total {c |}{res}        867      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Step two: creating respondents' stated turnout intention variable across both experimental groups
. 
. gen turnoutplansimpledic = 1 if q21A==1 | q21B<=2
{txt}(204 missing values generated)

{com}. replace turnoutplansimpledic = 0 if q21A==2 | q21B==3
{txt}(190 real changes made)

{com}. tab turnoutplansimpledic [aw=weight]

{txt}turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 190.762675       14.09       14.09
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 1,163.2373       85.91      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,354      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 126.387382       11.27       11.27
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 994.612618       88.73      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,121      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite==0  [aw=weight]

{txt}turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 68.8198397       10.52       10.52
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}  585.18016       89.48      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        654      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite==1 [aw=weight]

{txt}turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 71.0498488       15.21       15.21
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}395.9501512       84.79      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        467      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutplansimpledic if turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aweight=weight]

{txt}turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 142.196603       16.53       16.53
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 717.803397       83.47      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        860      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutplansimpledic if turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. & blackwhite==0 [aweight=weight]

{txt}turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 52.2648033       12.01       12.01
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 382.735197       87.99      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        435      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutplansimpledic if turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. & blackwhite==1 [aweight=weight]

{txt}turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 56.2170619       20.29       20.29
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}220.7829381       79.71      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        277      100.00
{txt}
{com}. bysort treatment: tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite !=. [aweight=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 0

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 69.5219454       12.53       12.53
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}485.4780546       87.47      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        555      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 1

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 57.1198561       10.09       10.09
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}508.8801439       89.91      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        566      100.00

{txt}
{com}. bysort treatment: tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite !=. & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 0

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 51.6603699       14.59       14.59
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}  302.33963       85.41      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        354      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 1

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 42.4002553       11.84       11.84
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 315.599745       88.16      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        358      100.00

{txt}
{com}. bysort treatment: tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite==0 [aweight=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 0

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}  37.739989       11.83       11.83
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 281.260011       88.17      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        319      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 1

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}  31.153078        9.30        9.30
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 303.846922       90.70      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        335      100.00

{txt}
{com}. bysort treatment: tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite==0 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 0

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 28.3138499       13.05       13.05
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}  188.68615       86.95      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        217      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 1

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 24.0611087       11.04       11.04
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 193.938891       88.96      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        218      100.00

{txt}
{com}. bysort treatment: tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite==1 [aweight=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 0

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 37.9074409       16.06       16.06
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}198.0925591       83.94      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        236      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 1

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 33.1965897       14.37       14.37
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}  197.80341       85.63      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        231      100.00

{txt}
{com}. bysort treatment: tab turnoutplansimpledic if blackwhite==1 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 0

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 32.6099431       23.80       23.80
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 104.390057       76.20      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        137      100.00

{txt}{hline}
-> treatment = 1

turnoutplan {c |}
  simpledic {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 23.5784706       16.84       16.84
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 116.421529       83.16      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        140      100.00

{txt}
{com}. 
. * Step three: subtracting respondents' stated turnout intentions from their validated voting behavior
. 
. gen turnoutoverorunder=turnoutplansimpledic-turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter
{txt}(508 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Step four: replacing "underestimates" to zero, since our theory does not distinguish the rare case of underestimating from intention-validated matches.
. 
. gen turnoutoverestimated=turnoutoverorunder
{txt}(508 missing values generated)

{com}. replace turnoutoverestimated=0 if turnoutoverorunder==-1
{txt}(13 real changes made)

{com}. 
. tab turnoutoverestimated if blackwhite !=. [aweight=weight]

{txt}turnoutover {c |}
  estimated {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 633.105147       88.92       88.92
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 78.8948528       11.08      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        712      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutoverestimated if blackwhite ==0 [aweight=weight]

{txt}turnoutover {c |}
  estimated {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 393.150082       90.38       90.38
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 41.8499177        9.62      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        435      100.00
{txt}
{com}. tab turnoutoverestimated if blackwhite ==1 [aweight=weight]

{txt}turnoutover {c |}
  estimated {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res} 221.719129       80.04       80.04
{txt}          1 {c |}{res} 55.2808712       19.96      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}        277      100.00
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Now create the interaction term of treatmentXblack
. 
. gen treatXblack=treatment*blackwhite
{txt}(237 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * now convert gender to "female"
. 
. gen female = gender-1
{txt}
{com}. 
. * now center the non-binary control variables (so mean=0) for most realistic interpretation
. 
. mcenter birthyr educ faminc_new

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 3}C_birthyr {c |}{res}      1,178    2.04e-07    16.47304  -39.00509   30.99491

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 6}C_educ {c |}{res}      1,178    1.90e-09    1.459242  -2.289474   2.710526

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
C_faminc_new {c |}{res}      1,178   -1.81e-08    3.503833  -4.595077   10.40492
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. * Now estimate simple model for Figure/Table 1
. 
. cloglog turnoutoverestimated treatment blackwhite treatXblack female C_birthyr C_educ C_faminc_new [pw=weight], cluster (surveyduration)
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-176.33046}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-175.93898}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-175.93794}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-175.93794}  
{res}
{txt}Complementary log-log regression                Number of obs     = {res}       610
                                                {txt}Zero outcomes     = {res}       535
                                                {txt}Nonzero outcomes  = {res}        75

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}2{txt})      =  {res}        .
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-175.93794               {txt}Prob > chi2       =  {res}        .

{txt}{ralign 86:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:4} clusters in {res:surveyduration})}
{hline 21}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 22}{c |}{col 34}    Robust
{col 1}turnoutoverestimated{col 22}{c |} Coefficient{col 34}  std. err.{col 46}      z{col 54}   P>|z|{col 62}     [95% con{col 75}f. interval]
{hline 21}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 11}treatment {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .3315624{col 34}{space 2} .0758951{col 45}{space 1}    4.37{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .1828108{col 75}{space 3}  .480314
{txt}{space 10}blackwhite {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} 1.184509{col 34}{space 2} .0385843{col 45}{space 1}   30.70{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} 1.108885{col 75}{space 3} 1.260133
{txt}{space 9}treatXblack {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.8234381{col 34}{space 2} .1145314{col 45}{space 1}   -7.19{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-1.047915{col 75}{space 3}-.5989607
{txt}{space 14}female {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.2886597{col 34}{space 2} .0873145{col 45}{space 1}   -3.31{col 54}{space 3}0.001{col 62}{space 4} -.459793{col 75}{space 3}-.1175264
{txt}{space 11}C_birthyr {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .0393246{col 34}{space 2} .0052853{col 45}{space 1}    7.44{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .0289656{col 75}{space 3} .0496837
{txt}{space 14}C_educ {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-.0463498{col 34}{space 2} .0218779{col 45}{space 1}   -2.12{col 54}{space 3}0.034{col 62}{space 4}-.0892296{col 75}{space 3}  -.00347
{txt}{space 8}C_faminc_new {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2} .0565535{col 34}{space 2} .0032891{col 45}{space 1}   17.19{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4} .0501069{col 75}{space 3} .0630001
{txt}{space 15}_cons {c |}{col 22}{res}{space 2}-2.388625{col 34}{space 2} .0448038{col 45}{space 1}  -53.31{col 54}{space 3}0.000{col 62}{space 4}-2.476439{col 75}{space 3}-2.300811
{txt}{hline 21}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. 
. * Now create the Racial Civic Consciousness variable (RCC) with a weighted index (principal component) of r's (1) sense of civic duty toward the country, (2) sense of civic duty toward racial group, and (3) racial identity consciousness
. 
. *the first variable in that index is racial identity:
. 
. gen racialidentity= 0 if q6_new_grid_1==0 | q18_4==0 
{txt}(1,054 missing values generated)

{com}. replace racialidentity= 1 if q6_new_grid_1==1 | q18_4==1
{txt}(105 real changes made)

{com}. replace racialidentity= 2 if q6_new_grid_1==2 | q18_4==2
{txt}(105 real changes made)

{com}. replace racialidentity= 3 if q6_new_grid_1==3 | q18_4==3
{txt}(226 real changes made)

{com}. replace racialidentity= 4 if q6_new_grid_1==4 | q18_4==4
{txt}(139 real changes made)

{com}. replace racialidentity= 5 if q6_new_grid_1==5 | q18_4==5
{txt}(149 real changes made)

{com}. replace racialidentity= 6 if q6_new_grid_1==6 | q18_4==6
{txt}(310 real changes made)

{com}. tab racialidentity

{txt}racialident {c |}
        ity {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
          0 {c |}{res}        314       23.29       23.29
{txt}          1 {c |}{res}        105        7.79       31.08
{txt}          2 {c |}{res}        105        7.79       38.87
{txt}          3 {c |}{res}        226       16.77       55.64
{txt}          4 {c |}{res}        139       10.31       65.95
{txt}          5 {c |}{res}        149       11.05       77.00
{txt}          6 {c |}{res}        310       23.00      100.00
{txt}{hline 12}{c +}{hline 35}
      Total {c |}{res}      1,348      100.00
{txt}
{com}. label variable racialidentity "q6_new_grid_1 & q18_4"
{txt}
{com}. 
. *The second item in the racial civic consciousness index is generic civic duty
. 
. tab q7_1

{txt}Agree or disagree with {c |}
  the following voting {c |}
  statements -- Voting {c |}
       is an important {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 35}
     Disagree Strongly {c |}{res}         96        7.02        7.02
{txt}     Disagree Somewhat {c |}{res}         93        6.80       13.82
{txt}Neither Agree/Disagree {c |}{res}        287       20.98       34.80
{txt}        Agree Somewhat {c |}{res}        246       17.98       52.78
{txt}        Agree Strongly {c |}{res}        626       45.76       98.54
{txt}               skipped {c |}{res}         20        1.46      100.00
{txt}{hline 23}{c +}{hline 35}
                 Total {c |}{res}      1,368      100.00
{txt}
{com}. gen civicdutygeneral= q7_1 if q7_1 <=5
{txt}(20 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. * The third item is civic duty as applied to race:
. tab q7_3

{txt}Agree or disagree with {c |}
  the following voting {c |}
  statements -- Voting {c |}
       is an important {c |}      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
{hline 23}{c +}{hline 35}
     Disagree Strongly {c |}{res}        259       18.93       18.93
{txt}     Disagree Somewhat {c |}{res}         82        5.99       24.93
{txt}Neither Agree/Disagree {c |}{res}        472       34.50       59.43
{txt}        Agree Somewhat {c |}{res}        184       13.45       72.88
{txt}        Agree Strongly {c |}{res}        350       25.58       98.46
{txt}               skipped {c |}{res}         21        1.54      100.00
{txt}{hline 23}{c +}{hline 35}
                 Total {c |}{res}      1,368      100.00
{txt}
{com}. gen civicdutyrace= q7_3 if q7_3 <=5
{txt}(21 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. *now to show the alpha and the principal components analysis results
. alpha racialidentity civicdutygeneral civicdutyrace if blackwhite !=. & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=.

{txt}Test scale = mean(unstandardized items)

Average interitem covariance:{col 34}{res}  .799925
{txt}Number of items in the scale:{col 34}{res}        3
{txt}Scale reliability coefficient:{col 34}{res}   0.5271
{txt}
{com}. alpha racialidentity civicdutygeneral civicdutyrace if blackwhite==0 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=.

{txt}Test scale = mean(unstandardized items)

Average interitem covariance:{col 34}{res} .6251084
{txt}Number of items in the scale:{col 34}{res}        3
{txt}Scale reliability coefficient:{col 34}{res}   0.4928
{txt}
{com}. alpha racialidentity civicdutygeneral civicdutyrace if blackwhite==1 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=.

{txt}Test scale = mean(unstandardized items)

Average interitem covariance:{col 34}{res} .6655558
{txt}Number of items in the scale:{col 34}{res}        3
{txt}Scale reliability coefficient:{col 34}{res}   0.5406
{txt}
{com}. 
. pca racialidentity civicdutygeneral civicdutyrace if blackwhite==0 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=.

{txt}Principal components/correlation{col 50}Number of obs    = {res}       427
{col 50}{txt}Number of comp.  = {res}         3
{col 50}{txt}Trace            {col 67}=  {res}        3
{col 5}{txt}Rotation: (unrotated = principal){col 50}Rho              = {res}    1.0000

{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 60}
{col 5}   Component {c |}   Eigenvalue   Difference         Proportion   Cumulative
{col 5}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 60}
{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp1} {c |}{res}      1.52832      .647272             0.5094       0.5094
{txt}{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp2} {c |}{res}      .881045      .290408             0.2937       0.8031
{txt}{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp3} {c |}{res}      .590637            .             0.1969       1.0000
{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 60}

Principal components (eigenvectors) 

{space 4}{hline 13}{c  TT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  TT}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:Variable}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp1}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp2}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:Unexplained}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:racialiden~y}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.5854}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.5507}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.5951}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyg~l}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.4736}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.8280}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.3003}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyr~e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.6581}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.1060}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.7454}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c  BT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  BT}{hline 13}

{com}. pca racialidentity civicdutygeneral civicdutyrace if blackwhite==1 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=.

{txt}Principal components/correlation{col 50}Number of obs    = {res}       272
{col 50}{txt}Number of comp.  = {res}         3
{col 50}{txt}Trace            {col 67}=  {res}        3
{col 5}{txt}Rotation: (unrotated = principal){col 50}Rho              = {res}    1.0000

{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 60}
{col 5}   Component {c |}   Eigenvalue   Difference         Proportion   Cumulative
{col 5}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 60}
{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp1} {c |}{res}      1.67346      .819407             0.5578       0.5578
{txt}{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp2} {c |}{res}       .85405      .381557             0.2847       0.8425
{txt}{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp3} {c |}{res}      .472493            .             0.1575       1.0000
{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 60}

Principal components (eigenvectors) 

{space 4}{hline 13}{c  TT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  TT}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:Variable}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp1}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp2}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:Unexplained}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:racialiden~y}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.4517}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.8604}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.2360}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyg~l}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.6026}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.4893}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.6304}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyr~e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.6579}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.1426}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.7395}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c  BT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  BT}{hline 13}

{com}. pca racialidentity civicdutygeneral civicdutyrace if blackwhite !=. & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=.

{txt}Principal components/correlation{col 50}Number of obs    = {res}       699
{col 50}{txt}Number of comp.  = {res}         3
{col 50}{txt}Trace            {col 67}=  {res}        3
{col 5}{txt}Rotation: (unrotated = principal){col 50}Rho              = {res}    1.0000

{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 60}
{col 5}   Component {c |}   Eigenvalue   Difference         Proportion   Cumulative
{col 5}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 60}
{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp1} {c |}{res}      1.60999      .708154             0.5367       0.5367
{txt}{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp2} {c |}{res}      .901837      .413666             0.3006       0.8373
{txt}{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp3} {c |}{res}      .488172            .             0.1627       1.0000
{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 60}

Principal components (eigenvectors) 

{space 4}{hline 13}{c  TT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  TT}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:Variable}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp1}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp2}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp3}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:Unexplained}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:racialiden~y}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.5881}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.5471}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.5957}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyg~l}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.4472}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.8336}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.3241}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyr~e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.6739}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.0758}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.7349}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c  BT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  BT}{hline 13}

{com}. 
. predict RCCpca301
{txt}({bf:score} assumed)
(2 components skipped)

Scoring coefficients 
{col 5}sum of squares(column-loading) = 1

{space 4}{hline 13}{c  TT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:Variable}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp1}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp2}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp3}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:racialiden~y}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.5881}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.5471}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.5957}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyg~l}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.4472}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.8336}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.3241}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:civicdutyr~e}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.6739}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.0758}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.7349}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c  BT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{hline 10}

{com}. label variable RCCpca301 "RCC pca index: identityrace dutyrace civicdutygeneral"
{txt}
{com}. sum RCCpca301

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 3}RCCpca301 {c |}{res}      1,339    .0817597    1.233315  -2.753718   2.054446
{txt}
{com}. replace RCCpca301= RCCpca301+2.854426
{txt}(1,339 real changes made)

{com}. sum RCCpca301

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 3}RCCpca301 {c |}{res}      1,339    2.936186    1.233315   .1007083   4.908873
{txt}
{com}. replace RCCpca301= RCCpca301 /4.865268
{txt}(1,339 real changes made)

{com}. sum RCCpca301

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 3}RCCpca301 {c |}{res}      1,339    .6034993    .2534937   .0206994   1.008962
{txt}
{com}. replace RCCpca301= 0 if RCCpca301 <=.0001
{txt}(0 real changes made)

{com}. 
. sum RCCpca301 if blackwhite !=. & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
{space 3}RCCpca301 {c |}{res}     699  646.432943    .5411186   .2515169   .0206994   1.008962
{txt}
{com}. sum RCCpca301 if blackwhite==0 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
{space 3}RCCpca301 {c |}{res}     427  555.388166    .5121373   .2419379   .0206994   1.008962
{txt}
{com}. sum RCCpca301 if blackwhite==1 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
{space 3}RCCpca301 {c |}{res}     272  91.0447763     .717909   .2368896   .0206994   1.008962
{txt}
{com}. 
. * now trichotomizing RCCpca301
. 
. gen RCCpca3thirds = 0 if RCCpca301 <=.333
{txt}(1,169 missing values generated)

{com}. replace RCCpca3thirds = .5 if RCCpca301 >=.3331 & RCCpca301 <=.666
{txt}(572 real changes made)

{com}. replace RCCpca3thirds = 1 if RCCpca301 >=.6661
{txt}(597 real changes made)

{com}. replace RCCpca3thirds=. if RCCpca301==.
{txt}(29 real changes made, 29 to missing)

{com}. 
. sum RCCpca3thirds if blackwhite !=. & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
RCCpca3thi~s {c |}{res}     699  646.432943    .5489124   .3543718          0          1
{txt}
{com}. sum RCCpca3thirds if blackwhite==0 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
RCCpca3thi~s {c |}{res}     427  555.388166    .5113788   .3507441          0          1
{txt}
{com}. sum RCCpca3thirds if blackwhite==1 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
RCCpca3thi~s {c |}{res}     272  91.0447763    .7778731   .2845099          0          1
{txt}
{com}. 
. *Now create interaction terms that multiply this variable by (a) treatment and (b) blackvswhite
. 
. gen treatXRCCpca3thirds=treatment*RCCpca3thirds
{txt}(29 missing values generated)

{com}. gen blackXRCCpca3thirds=blackwhite*RCCpca3thirds
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. * Now create the Campaign Indifference variable by (1) combining each of the candidate and party attitude items into a single scale for each (because they were asked with multiple questions), (2) differencing the resulting candidate scales and party scales, (2) folding them, (3) summing them, (4) flipping the variable that results, and (5) trichotomizing it to boost power. 
. 
. *The candidate attitude variables are q14, q14a, q14b & q14_new (Trump) and q15, q15a, q15b & q15_new (Biden)
. *The party attitude variables are q16, q16a, q16b & q16_new (Democratic Party) and q17, q17a, q17v & q17_new (Republican Party)
. 
. gen trumpattitudescombined=1 if q14_new==1 | q14b==3
{txt}(662 missing values generated)

{com}. replace trumpattitudescombined=2 if q14_new==2 | q14b==2
{txt}(69 real changes made)

{com}. replace trumpattitudescombined=3 if q14_new==3 | q14b==1
{txt}(41 real changes made)

{com}. replace trumpattitudescombined=4 if q14_new==4 | q14==2
{txt}(138 real changes made)

{com}.  replace trumpattitudescombined=5 if q14_new==5 | q14a==1
{txt}(60 real changes made)

{com}. replace trumpattitudescombined=6 if q14_new==6 | q14a==2
{txt}(87 real changes made)

{com}. replace trumpattitudescombined=7 if q14_new==7 | q14a==3
{txt}(254 real changes made)

{com}. gen bidenattitudescombined=1 if q15_new==1 | q15b==3
{txt}(1,050 missing values generated)

{com}. replace bidenattitudescombined=2 if q15_new==2 | q15b==2
{txt}(83 real changes made)

{com}. replace bidenattitudescombined=3 if q15_new==3 | q15b==1
{txt}(65 real changes made)

{com}. replace bidenattitudescombined=4 if q15_new==4 | q15==2
{txt}(219 real changes made)

{com}.  replace bidenattitudescombined=5 if q15_new==5 | q15a==1
{txt}(84 real changes made)

{com}. replace bidenattitudescombined=6 if q15_new==6 | q15a==2
{txt}(220 real changes made)

{com}. replace bidenattitudescombined=7 if q15_new==7 | q15a==3
{txt}(368 real changes made)

{com}. gen demoattitudescombined=1 if q16_new==1 | q16b==3
{txt}(1,018 missing values generated)

{com}. replace demoattitudescombined=2 if q16_new==2 | q16b==2
{txt}(80 real changes made)

{com}. replace demoattitudescombined=3 if q16_new==3 | q16b==1
{txt}(63 real changes made)

{com}. replace demoattitudescombined=4 if q16_new==4 | q16==2
{txt}(237 real changes made)

{com}.  replace demoattitudescombined=5 if q16_new==5 | q16a==1
{txt}(116 real changes made)

{com}. replace demoattitudescombined=6 if q16_new==6 | q16a==2
{txt}(225 real changes made)

{com}. replace demoattitudescombined=7 if q16_new==7 | q16a==3
{txt}(280 real changes made)

{com}. gen gopattitudescombined=1 if q17_new==1 | q17b==3
{txt}(804 missing values generated)

{com}. replace gopattitudescombined=2 if q17_new==2 | q17b==2
{txt}(127 real changes made)

{com}. replace gopattitudescombined=3 if q17_new==3 | q17b==1
{txt}(74 real changes made)

{com}. replace gopattitudescombined=4 if q17_new==4 | q17==2
{txt}(227 real changes made)

{com}.  replace gopattitudescombined=5 if q17_new==5 | q17a==1
{txt}(84 real changes made)

{com}. replace gopattitudescombined=6 if q17_new==6 | q17a==2
{txt}(142 real changes made)

{com}. replace gopattitudescombined=7 if q17_new==7 | q17a==3
{txt}(133 real changes made)

{com}. gen dem_gopattitudes= demoattitudescombined-gopattitudescombined
{txt}(26 missing values generated)

{com}. gen biden_trumpattitudes= bidenattitudescombined-trumpattitudescombined
{txt}(20 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. gen dem_gopfold= abs(dem_gopattitudes)
{txt}(26 missing values generated)

{com}. gen biden_trumpfold= abs(biden_trumpattitudes)
{txt}(20 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. pca dem_gopfold biden_trumpfold

{txt}Principal components/correlation{col 50}Number of obs    = {res}     1,334
{col 50}{txt}Number of comp.  = {res}         2
{col 50}{txt}Trace            {col 67}=  {res}        2
{col 5}{txt}Rotation: (unrotated = principal){col 50}Rho              = {res}    1.0000

{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c TT}{hline 60}
{col 5}   Component {c |}   Eigenvalue   Difference         Proportion   Cumulative
{col 5}{hline 13}{c +}{hline 60}
{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp1} {c |}{res}      1.72894      1.45788             0.8645       0.8645
{txt}{col 5}{ralign 12:Comp2} {c |}{res}      .271058            .             0.1355       1.0000
{txt}{col 5}{hline 13}{c BT}{hline 60}

Principal components (eigenvectors) 

{space 4}{hline 13}{c  TT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  TT}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:Variable}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp1}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp2}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 11:Unexplained}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c   +}{hline 13}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:dem_gopfold}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.7071}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.7071}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:biden_trum~d}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.7071}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.7071}}}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{center 11:{res:{sf:          0}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c  BT}{hline 10}{hline 10}{c  BT}{hline 13}

{com}. predict CI
{txt}({bf:score} assumed)
(1 components skipped)

Scoring coefficients 
{col 5}sum of squares(column-loading) = 1

{space 4}{hline 13}{c  TT}{hline 10}{hline 10}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:Variable}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp1}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:Comp2}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c   +}{hline 10}{hline 10}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:dem_gopfold}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.7071}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:{space 8}}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{space 0}{ralign 12:biden_trum~d}{space 1}{c |}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf:  0.7071}}}{space 1}{space 1}{ralign 8:{res:{sf: -0.7071}}}{space 1}
{space 4}{hline 13}{c  BT}{hline 10}{hline 10}

{com}. label variable CI "cand and party differences folded summed & flipped"
{txt}
{com}. replace CI =CI*-1
{txt}(1,334 real changes made)

{com}. replace CI =CI+1
{txt}(1,334 real changes made)

{com}. 
. gen CI01= CI +.465901
{txt}(34 missing values generated)

{com}. sum CI01

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 8}CI01 {c |}{res}      1,334    1.465901    1.314892  -1.72e-08   3.791456
{txt}
{com}. replace CI01= CI01 / 3.791456
{txt}(1,334 real changes made)

{com}. sum CI01

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 8}CI01 {c |}{res}      1,334    .3866327    .3468041  -4.53e-09   .9999999
{txt}
{com}. replace CI01= 0 if CI01 <=.0001
{txt}(261 real changes made)

{com}. sum CI01

{txt}    Variable {c |}        Obs        Mean    Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 57}
{space 8}CI01 {c |}{res}      1,334    .3866327    .3468041          0   .9999999
{txt}
{com}. gen CI01thirds = 0 if CI01 <=.333
{txt}(659 missing values generated)

{com}. replace CI01thirds = .5 if CI01 >=.3331 & CI01 <=.666
{txt}(272 real changes made)

{com}. replace CI01thirds = 1 if CI01 >=.6661
{txt}(387 real changes made)

{com}. replace CI01thirds=. if CI01==.
{txt}(34 real changes made, 34 to missing)

{com}. 
. sum CI01thirds if blackwhite !=. & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
{space 2}CI01thirds {c |}{res}     704  652.102043    .2957364   .3996072          0          1
{txt}
{com}. sum CI01thirds if blackwhite==0 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
{space 2}CI01thirds {c |}{res}     432  561.317937    .2765842   .3895871          0          1
{txt}
{com}. sum CI01thirds if blackwhite==1 & turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter !=. [aw=weight]

{txt}    Variable {c |}     Obs      Weight        Mean   Std. dev.       Min        Max
{hline 13}{c +}{hline 65}
{space 2}CI01thirds {c |}{res}     272  90.7841062    .4141545    .439936          0          1
{txt}
{com}. 
. ttest CI01thirds if turnoutvalidnonregtononvoter!=., by (blackwhite)

{txt}Two-sample t test with equal variances
{hline 9}{c TT}{hline 68}
   Group{col 10}{c |}{col 16}Obs{col 27}Mean{col 35}Std. err.{col 47}Std. dev.{col 59}[95% conf. interval]
{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
       0 {c |}{res}{col 12}    432{col 22}   .28125{col 34} .0189806{col 46} .3945044{col 58} .2439439{col 70} .3185561
       {txt}1 {c |}{res}{col 12}    272{col 22} .3768382{col 34} .0258154{col 46} .4257578{col 58} .3260141{col 70} .4276624
{txt}{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
Combined {c |}{res}{col 12}    704{col 22} .3181818{col 34} .0154232{col 46} .4092238{col 58} .2879008{col 70} .3484629
{txt}{hline 9}{c +}{hline 68}
    diff {c |}{res}{col 22}-.0955882{col 34} .0314919{col 58}-.1574178{col 70}-.0337587
{txt}{hline 9}{c BT}{hline 68}
    diff = mean({res}0{txt}) - mean({res}1{txt})                                      t = {res} -3.0353
{txt}H0: diff = 0                                     Degrees of freedom = {res}     702

    {txt}Ha: diff < 0                 Ha: diff != 0                 Ha: diff > 0
 Pr(T < t) = {res}0.0012         {txt}Pr(|T| > |t|) = {res}0.0025          {txt}Pr(T > t) = {res}0.9988
{txt}
{com}. 
. tab RCCpca3thirds CI01thirds if blackwhite !=. [aw=weight], cell
{txt}
{c TLC}{hline 17}{c TRC}
{c |} Key{col 19}{c |}
{c LT}{hline 17}{c RT}
{c |}{space 4}{it:frequency}{col 19}{c |}
{c |}{space 1}{it:cell percentage}{col 19}{c |}
{c BLC}{hline 17}{c BRC}

RCCpca3thi {c |}            CI01thirds
       rds {c |}         0         .5          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res} 138.91908   32.07175  48.289322 {txt}{c |}{res} 219.28015 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     12.80       2.96       4.45 {txt}{c |}{res}     20.21 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
        .5 {c |}{res} 257.52299  132.52421  132.36468 {txt}{c |}{res} 522.41187 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     23.73      12.21      12.20 {txt}{c |}{res}     48.15 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
         1 {c |}{res} 210.54279  67.841864  64.923319 {txt}{c |}{res} 343.30798 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     19.40       6.25       5.98 {txt}{c |}{res}     31.64 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res} 606.98486  232.43782  245.57732 {txt}{c |}{res}     1,085 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     55.94      21.42      22.63 {txt}{c |}{res}    100.00 
{txt}
{com}. tab RCCpca3thirds CI01thirds if blackwhite==0 [aw=weight], cell
{txt}
{c TLC}{hline 17}{c TRC}
{c |} Key{col 19}{c |}
{c LT}{hline 17}{c RT}
{c |}{space 4}{it:frequency}{col 19}{c |}
{c |}{space 1}{it:cell percentage}{col 19}{c |}
{c BLC}{hline 17}{c BRC}

RCCpca3thi {c |}            CI01thirds
       rds {c |}         0         .5          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res} 95.084767  22.043021  29.961683 {txt}{c |}{res} 147.08947 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     14.97       3.47       4.72 {txt}{c |}{res}     23.16 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
        .5 {c |}{res} 167.42168  85.383423  73.033179 {txt}{c |}{res} 325.83828 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     26.37      13.45      11.50 {txt}{c |}{res}     51.31 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
         1 {c |}{res} 102.01825  33.862151  26.191846 {txt}{c |}{res} 162.07225 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     16.07       5.33       4.12 {txt}{c |}{res}     25.52 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res}  364.5247  141.28859 129.186707 {txt}{c |}{res}       635 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     57.41      22.25      20.34 {txt}{c |}{res}    100.00 
{txt}
{com}. tab RCCpca3thirds CI01thirds if blackwhite==1 [aw=weight], cell
{txt}
{c TLC}{hline 17}{c TRC}
{c |} Key{col 19}{c |}
{c LT}{hline 17}{c RT}
{c |}{space 4}{it:frequency}{col 19}{c |}
{c |}{space 1}{it:cell percentage}{col 19}{c |}
{c BLC}{hline 17}{c BRC}

RCCpca3thi {c |}            CI01thirds
       rds {c |}         0         .5          1 {c |}     Total
{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
         0 {c |}{res} 5.9011294  1.0203726   13.64805 {txt}{c |}{res} 20.569552 
           {txt}{c |}{res}      1.31       0.23       3.03 {txt}{c |}{res}      4.57 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
        .5 {c |}{res} 44.121324  25.608346  71.534804 {txt}{c |}{res} 141.26447 
           {txt}{c |}{res}      9.80       5.69      15.90 {txt}{c |}{res}     31.39 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
         1 {c |}{res} 166.88254   50.06066  71.222775 {txt}{c |}{res} 288.16597 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     37.09      11.12      15.83 {txt}{c |}{res}     64.04 
{txt}{hline 11}{c +}{hline 33}{c +}{hline 10}
     Total {c |}{res} 216.90499  76.689378  156.40563 {txt}{c |}{res}       450 
           {txt}{c |}{res}     48.20      17.04      34.76 {txt}{c |}{res}    100.00 
{txt}
{com}. 
. * Now create all remaining interaction terms
. 
. gen treatXCIthirds=treatment*CI01thirds
{txt}(34 missing values generated)

{com}. gen blackXCIthirds = blackwhite*CI01thirds
{txt}(266 missing values generated)

{com}. gen RCCXCIthirds01 = RCCpca3thirds*CI01thirds
{txt}(58 missing values generated)

{com}. gen blackXRCCXCIthirds= blackwhite * RCCpca3thirds * CI01thirds
{txt}(283 missing values generated)

{com}. gen treatXRCCXCIthirds= treatment * RCCpca3thirds * CI01thirds
{txt}(58 missing values generated)

{com}. gen treatXblackXRCCthirds=treatment*blackwhite*RCCpca3thirds
{txt}(259 missing values generated)

{com}. gen treatXblackXCIthirds=treatment*blackwhite*CI01thirds
{txt}(266 missing values generated)

{com}. gen treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=treatment*blackwhite*RCCpca3thirds*CI01thirds
{txt}(283 missing values generated)

{com}. 
. 
. 
. * Now estimate model for Figure/Table 2 and convert the complementary log log coefficients to marginal effects
. 
. cloglog turnoutoverestimated blackwhite RCCpca3thirds CI01thirds blackXRCCpca3thirds blackXCIthirds RCCXCIthirds01 blackXRCCXCIthirds treatment treatXblack treatXRCCpca3thirds treatXblackXRCCthirds treatXCIthirds treatXblackXCIthirds treatXRCCXCIthirds treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds female C_birthyr C_educ C_faminc_new [pw=weight], cluster (surveyduration)
{res}
{txt}Iteration 0:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-163.55312}  
Iteration 1:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res: -162.3106}  
Iteration 2:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-162.30934}  
Iteration 3:{space 2}Log pseudolikelihood = {res:-162.30934}  
{res}
{txt}Complementary log-log regression                Number of obs     = {res}       593
                                                {txt}Zero outcomes     = {res}       519
                                                {txt}Nonzero outcomes  = {res}        74

                                                {txt}Wald chi2({res}2{txt})      =  {res}        .
{txt}Log pseudolikelihood = {res}-162.30934               {txt}Prob > chi2       =  {res}        .

{txt}{ralign 89:(Std. err. adjusted for {res:4} clusters in {res:surveyduration})}
{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37}    Robust
{col 1}   turnoutoverestimated{col 25}{c |} Coefficient{col 37}  std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 13}blackwhite {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.263436{col 37}{space 2} .2992949{col 48}{space 1}   -4.22{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-1.850044{col 78}{space 3}-.6768291
{txt}{space 10}RCCpca3thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.3323348{col 37}{space 2}  .025197{col 48}{space 1}  -13.19{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  -.38172{col 78}{space 3}-.2829496
{txt}{space 13}CI01thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.4853545{col 37}{space 2} .0398305{col 48}{space 1}  -12.19{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.5634209{col 78}{space 3}-.4072881
{txt}{space 4}blackXRCCpca3thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 2.073017{col 37}{space 2} .3344877{col 48}{space 1}    6.20{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} 1.417433{col 78}{space 3} 2.728601
{txt}{space 9}blackXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 1.824292{col 37}{space 2} .3954271{col 48}{space 1}    4.61{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  1.04927{col 78}{space 3} 2.599315
{txt}{space 9}RCCXCIthirds01 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1144313{col 37}{space 2} .1911085{col 48}{space 1}    0.60{col 57}{space 3}0.549{col 65}{space 4}-.2601344{col 78}{space 3}  .488997
{txt}{space 5}blackXRCCXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.2294982{col 37}{space 2} .5200244{col 48}{space 1}   -0.44{col 57}{space 3}0.659{col 65}{space 4}-1.248727{col 78}{space 3} .7897309
{txt}{space 14}treatment {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.6451387{col 37}{space 2} .5350086{col 48}{space 1}   -1.21{col 57}{space 3}0.228{col 65}{space 4}-1.693736{col 78}{space 3} .4034589
{txt}{space 12}treatXblack {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .6195264{col 37}{space 2} .2312346{col 48}{space 1}    2.68{col 57}{space 3}0.007{col 65}{space 4} .1663148{col 78}{space 3} 1.072738
{txt}{space 4}treatXRCCpca3thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}  .118697{col 37}{space 2} .5429884{col 48}{space 1}    0.22{col 57}{space 3}0.827{col 65}{space 4}-.9455407{col 78}{space 3} 1.182935
{txt}{space 2}treatXblackXRCCthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.3283352{col 37}{space 2} .2306731{col 48}{space 1}   -1.42{col 57}{space 3}0.155{col 65}{space 4}-.7804461{col 78}{space 3} .1237758
{txt}{space 9}treatXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .8740636{col 37}{space 2} .7113351{col 48}{space 1}    1.23{col 57}{space 3}0.219{col 65}{space 4}-.5201277{col 78}{space 3} 2.268255
{txt}{space 3}treatXblackXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1842506{col 37}{space 2} .2747307{col 48}{space 1}    0.67{col 57}{space 3}0.502{col 65}{space 4}-.3542116{col 78}{space 3} .7227129
{txt}{space 5}treatXRCCXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} 2.093771{col 37}{space 2} .7624646{col 48}{space 1}    2.75{col 57}{space 3}0.006{col 65}{space 4} .5993682{col 78}{space 3} 3.588175
{txt}treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} -3.74113{col 37}{space 2} .3441511{col 48}{space 1}  -10.87{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-4.415654{col 78}{space 3}-3.066606
{txt}{space 17}female {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.3825213{col 37}{space 2} .0489913{col 48}{space 1}   -7.81{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4785425{col 78}{space 3}-.2865002
{txt}{space 14}C_birthyr {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0324137{col 37}{space 2} .0058543{col 48}{space 1}    5.54{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0209396{col 78}{space 3} .0438878
{txt}{space 17}C_educ {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0028875{col 37}{space 2} .0305776{col 48}{space 1}    0.09{col 57}{space 3}0.925{col 65}{space 4}-.0570434{col 78}{space 3} .0628184
{txt}{space 11}C_faminc_new {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0314067{col 37}{space 2}    .0035{col 48}{space 1}    8.97{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0245468{col 78}{space 3} .0382667
{txt}{space 18}_cons {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-1.993276{col 37}{space 2} .0049885{col 48}{space 1} -399.58{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-2.003053{col 78}{space 3}-1.983498
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}

{com}. 
. margins, dydx (*)
{res}
{txt}{col 1}Average marginal effects{col 60}{lalign 13:Number of obs}{col 73} = {res}{ralign 3:593}
{txt}{col 1}Model VCE: {res:Robust}

{txt}{p2colset 1 13 13 2}{...}
{p2col:Expression:}{res:Pr(turnoutoverestimated), predict()}{p_end}
{p2col:dy/dx wrt:}{res:blackwhite RCCpca3thirds CI01thirds blackXRCCpca3thirds blackXCIthirds RCCXCIthirds01 blackXRCCXCIthirds treatment treatXblack treatXRCCpca3thirds treatXblackXRCCthirds treatXCIthirds treatXblackXCIthirds treatXRCCXCIthirds treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds female C_birthyr C_educ C_faminc_new}{p_end}
{p2colreset}{...}

{res}{txt}{hline 24}{c TT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{col 25}{c |}{col 37} Delta-method
{col 25}{c |}      dy/dx{col 37}   std. err.{col 49}      z{col 57}   P>|z|{col 65}     [95% con{col 78}f. interval]
{hline 24}{c +}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{space 13}blackwhite {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.1204748{col 37}{space 2} .0316758{col 48}{space 1}   -3.80{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.1825582{col 78}{space 3}-.0583914
{txt}{space 10}RCCpca3thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0316897{col 37}{space 2} .0034478{col 48}{space 1}   -9.19{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0384474{col 78}{space 3}-.0249321
{txt}{space 13}CI01thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0462809{col 37}{space 2} .0022774{col 48}{space 1}  -20.32{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0507444{col 78}{space 3}-.0418173
{txt}{space 4}blackXRCCpca3thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1976722{col 37}{space 2} .0374083{col 48}{space 1}    5.28{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .1243534{col 78}{space 3}  .270991
{txt}{space 9}blackXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1739551{col 37}{space 2} .0426712{col 48}{space 1}    4.08{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}  .090321{col 78}{space 3} .2575892
{txt}{space 9}RCCXCIthirds01 {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0109116{col 37}{space 2} .0185829{col 48}{space 1}    0.59{col 57}{space 3}0.557{col 65}{space 4}-.0255101{col 78}{space 3} .0473333
{txt}{space 5}blackXRCCXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0218838{col 37}{space 2} .0502475{col 48}{space 1}   -0.44{col 57}{space 3}0.663{col 65}{space 4}-.1203671{col 78}{space 3} .0765996
{txt}{space 14}treatment {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0615171{col 37}{space 2} .0489885{col 48}{space 1}   -1.26{col 57}{space 3}0.209{col 65}{space 4}-.1575329{col 78}{space 3} .0344987
{txt}{space 12}treatXblack {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0590748{col 37}{space 2} .0210606{col 48}{space 1}    2.80{col 57}{space 3}0.005{col 65}{space 4} .0177967{col 78}{space 3} .1003529
{txt}{space 4}treatXRCCpca3thirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0113183{col 37}{space 2} .0514036{col 48}{space 1}    0.22{col 57}{space 3}0.826{col 65}{space 4}-.0894309{col 78}{space 3} .1120676
{txt}{space 2}treatXblackXRCCthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0313083{col 37}{space 2} .0215903{col 48}{space 1}   -1.45{col 57}{space 3}0.147{col 65}{space 4}-.0736245{col 78}{space 3} .0110078
{txt}{space 9}treatXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0833462{col 37}{space 2} .0650827{col 48}{space 1}    1.28{col 57}{space 3}0.200{col 65}{space 4}-.0442135{col 78}{space 3} .2109059
{txt}{space 3}treatXblackXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0175692{col 37}{space 2} .0265737{col 48}{space 1}    0.66{col 57}{space 3}0.509{col 65}{space 4}-.0345144{col 78}{space 3} .0696527
{txt}{space 5}treatXRCCXCIthirds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .1996512{col 37}{space 2} .0792844{col 48}{space 1}    2.52{col 57}{space 3}0.012{col 65}{space 4} .0442567{col 78}{space 3} .3550457
{txt}treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.3567348{col 37}{space 2} .0423972{col 48}{space 1}   -8.41{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.4398317{col 78}{space 3} -.273638
{txt}{space 17}female {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2}-.0364753{col 37}{space 2} .0058718{col 48}{space 1}   -6.21{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4}-.0479839{col 78}{space 3}-.0249667
{txt}{space 14}C_birthyr {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0030908{col 37}{space 2} .0004565{col 48}{space 1}    6.77{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0021961{col 78}{space 3} .0039855
{txt}{space 17}C_educ {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0002753{col 37}{space 2} .0029248{col 48}{space 1}    0.09{col 57}{space 3}0.925{col 65}{space 4}-.0054572{col 78}{space 3} .0060078
{txt}{space 11}C_faminc_new {c |}{col 25}{res}{space 2} .0029948{col 37}{space 2} .0002362{col 48}{space 1}   12.68{col 57}{space 3}0.000{col 65}{space 4} .0025318{col 78}{space 3} .0034578
{txt}{hline 24}{c BT}{hline 11}{hline 11}{hline 9}{hline 8}{hline 13}{hline 12}
{res}{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. *Now reveal the predicted probabilities for the various combinations of treatment, blackvswhite, RCC and CI at low, medium and high levels
. 
. * First, pr black overestimating at different levels of RCC and CI
. 
. * control black, low RCC, low CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0272{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0111{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0434{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9728{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9566{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9889{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now treatment, black, low RCC, low CI 
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=1 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0266{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0175{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0356{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9734{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9644{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9825{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             1             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control, black, mid RCC, mid CI 
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=.5 blackXCIthirds=.5 RCCXCIthirds01=.25 blackXRCCXCIthirds=.25 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.1176{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1083{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1269{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.8824{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8731{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8917{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1            .5            .5            .5            .5           .25

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}         .25             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=.5 blackXCIthirds=.5 RCCXCIthirds01=.25 blackXRCCXCIthirds=.25 treatment=1 treatXblack=1 treatXRCCpca3thirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCthirds=.5 treatXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXCIthirds=.5 treatXRCCXCIthirds=.25 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=.25) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.1162{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1060{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1264{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.8838{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8736{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8940{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1            .5            .5            .5            .5           .25

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}         .25             1             1            .5            .5            .5

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}          .5           .25           .25     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control hi RCC hi CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=1 blackXCIthirds=1 RCCXCIthirds01=1 blackXRCCXCIthirds=1 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.4145{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.3524{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.4766{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.5855{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.5234{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.6476{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             1             1             1             1             1

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           1             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=1 blackXCIthirds=1 RCCXCIthirds01=1 blackXRCCXCIthirds=1 treatment=1 treatXblack=1 treatXRCCpca3thirds=1 treatXblackXRCCthirds=1 treatXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXCIthirds=1 treatXRCCXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=1) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.2092{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1971{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.2213{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.7908{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.7787{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8029{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             1             1             1             1             1

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           1             1             1             1             1             1

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           1             1             1     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control hi RCC mid CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=1 blackXCIthirds=.5 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.2519{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.2281{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.2757{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.7481{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.7243{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.7719{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             1            .5             1            .5            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}          .5             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=1 blackXCIthirds=.5 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatment=1 treatXblack=1 treatXRCCpca3thirds=1 treatXblackXRCCthirds=1 treatXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXCIthirds=.5 treatXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=.5) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.1571{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1536{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1605{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.8429{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8395{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8464{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             1            .5             1            .5            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}          .5             1             1             1             1            .5

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}          .5            .5            .5     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control mid RCC hi CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=.5 blackXCIthirds=1 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.2113{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1674{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.2553{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.7887{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.7447{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8326{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1            .5             1            .5             1            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}          .5             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=.5 blackXCIthirds=1 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatment=1 treatXblack=1 treatXRCCpca3thirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCthirds=.5 treatXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXCIthirds=1 treatXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=.5) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.2316{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.2227{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.2406{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.7684{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.7594{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.7773{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1            .5             1            .5             1            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}          .5             1             1            .5            .5             1

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           1            .5            .5     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control low RCC hi CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=1 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.1000{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0742{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1257{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9000{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8743{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9258{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             0             1             0             1             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=1 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=1 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXCIthirds=1 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.2561{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.2499{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.2623{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.7439{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.7377{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.7501{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             0             1             0             1             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             1             0             0             1

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           1             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control Hi RCC low CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=1 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.1456{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1428{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1485{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.8544{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8515{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8572{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             1             0             1             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=1 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=1 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=1 treatXRCCpca3thirds=1 treatXblackXRCCthirds=1 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0)

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.1170{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1076{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1263{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.8830{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8737{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8924{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           1             1             0             1             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             1             1             1             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. 
.  * treatment effects on black overestimating:
. * Both Low=
. * Both Mid=
. * Low RCC Hi CI=
. * Hi RCC Low CI=
. * Mid RCC Hi CI=
. * Hi RCC mid CI= 
. * Both High=
. 
. 
. *Next: pr white overestimating at different levels of RCC and CI
. 
. * control, low RCC, low CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0930{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0915{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0946{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9070{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9054{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9085{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now treatment, low RCC, low CI 
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0499{col 32}{txt}[{res}-0.0003{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1002{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9501{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8998{txt},{res}{col 44} 1.0003{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control, mid RCC, mid CI 
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=.25 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0646{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0589{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0703{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9354{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9297{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9411{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0            .5            .5             0             0           .25

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=.25 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=.25 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0926{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0675{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1176{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9074{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8824{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9325{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0            .5            .5             0             0           .25

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             0            .5             0            .5

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0           .25             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control hi RCC hi CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=1 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0472{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0294{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0650{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9528{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9350{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9706{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             1             1             0             0             1

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=1 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=1 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.4262{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.2761{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.5762{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.5738{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.4238{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.7239{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             1             1             0             0             1

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             0             1             0             1

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             1             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control hi RCC mid CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0565{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0478{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0653{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9435{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9347{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9522{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             1            .5             0             0            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=.5 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=1 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.1407{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.1153{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.1660{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.8593{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.8340{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.8847{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             1            .5             0             0            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             0             1             0            .5

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0            .5             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control mid RCC hi CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0525{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0411{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0639{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9475{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9361{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9589{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0            .5             1             0             0            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=.5 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=.5 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=.5 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=.5) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0311{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0226{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0395{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9689{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9605{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9774{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0            .5             1             0             0            .5

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             0            .5             0             1

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0            .5            .5     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control low RCC hi CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0583{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0549{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0618{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9417{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9382{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9451{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             0             1             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=0 CI01thirds=1 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=1 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0728{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0528{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0927{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9272{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9073{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9472{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             0             1             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             0             0             0             1

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * now control Hi RCC low CI
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=0 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=0 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0677{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0633{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0720{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9323{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9280{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9367{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             1             0             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             0             0             0             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. * ditto treatment group
. prvalue, x (blackwhite=0 RCCpca3thirds=1 CI01thirds=0 blackXRCCpca3thirds=0 blackXCIthirds=0 RCCXCIthirds01=0 blackXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatment=1 treatXblack=0 treatXRCCpca3thirds=1 treatXblackXRCCthirds=0 treatXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXCIthirds=0 treatXRCCXCIthirds=0 treatXblackXRCCXCIthrds=0) 

{res}cloglog{txt}: Predictions for {res}turnoutoverestimated

{txt}Confidence intervals by delta method

{col 32} 95% Conf. Interval
  Pr(y=1|x):{res}{col 22} 0.0405{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.0373{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.0438{txt}]
  Pr(y=0|x):{res}{col 22} 0.9595{col 32}{txt}[{res} 0.9562{txt},{res}{col 44} 0.9627{txt}]

      blackwhite  RCCpca3thi~s    CI01thirds  blackXRCCp~s  blackXCIth~s  RCCXCIthi~01
x=  {res}           0             1             0             0             0             0

    {txt}blackXRCCX~s     treatment   treatXblack  treatXRCCp~s  trea~Cthirds  treatXCIth~s
x=  {res}           0             1             0             1             0             0

    {txt}t~kXCIthirds  treatXRCCX~s  treatXb~hrds        female     C_birthyr        C_educ
x=  {res}           0             0             0     .55986509    -3.9224625     .05285347

    {txt}C_faminc_new
x=  {res}   .26158463
{txt}
{com}. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
. 
{txt}end of do-file

{com}. log off
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/dbarker/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-david.c.barker1969@gmail.com/My Drive/Research/Turnout Experiment/POQ Overestimating TO Final 3 21 2024 .smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}paused on:  {res}21 Mar 2024, 10:29:54
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}{smcl}
{com}{sf}{ul off}{txt}{.-}
      name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/dbarker/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-david.c.barker1969@gmail.com/My Drive/Research/Turnout Experiment/POQ Overestimating TO Final 3 21 2024 .smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
{txt}resumed on:  {res}22 Mar 2024, 11:10:40

{com}. log off
      {txt}name:  {res}<unnamed>
       {txt}log:  {res}/Users/dbarker/Library/CloudStorage/GoogleDrive-david.c.barker1969@gmail.com/My Drive/Research/Turnout Experiment/POQ Overestimating TO Final 3 21 2024 .smcl
  {txt}log type:  {res}smcl
 {txt}paused on:  {res}22 Mar 2024, 11:10:43
{txt}{.-}
{smcl}
{txt}{sf}{ul off}